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John F. Cogan, Tobias Cwik, John B. Taylor, Volker Wieland
NBER Working Paper No. 14782
Issued in March 2009
NBER Program(s): EFG
---- Abstract -----
Renewed interest in fiscal policy has increased the use of quantitative models to evaluate policy. Because of modelling uncertainty, it is essential that policy evaluations be robust to alternative assumptions. We find that models currently being used in practice to evaluate fiscal policy stimulus proposals are not robust. Government spending multipliers in an alternative empirically-estimated and widely-cited new Keynesian model are much smaller than in these old Keynesian models; the estimated stimulus is extremely small just when needed most, and GDP and employment effects are only one-sixth as large, with private sector employment impacts likely to be even smaller.
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